Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$22.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward resolution terms tied to the outcome of the 2028 US Presidential Election. It specifies three major media networks—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to project the same winner for early resolution. If a consensus call is not reached among all three outlets prior to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market resolves definitively based on the individual who is inaugurated. The criteria and fallback procedures leave very little room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani will win the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Zohran Mamdani wins the 2028 US presidential election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the election. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project or call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date of January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on the individual who is inaugurated president.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback date to resolve the market based on who is inaugurated if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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