Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
1.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$14.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition and rely on a strict consensus among three named media outlets (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC). If the three outlets do not reach a unanimous call by January 20, 2029, a clear and objective fallback mechanism resolves the market based on who is officially inaugurated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tucker Carlson will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tucker Carlson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if someone else wins. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date of the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution deadline if all three media sources have not called the race for the same candidate.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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