Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
1.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.55%
$8.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide clear and objective criteria. The market specifies three major named news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires unanimous consensus among them to trigger resolution. In the event that these outlets do not reach a consensus, an unambiguous fallback resolves the market based on who is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. The terms leave minimal room for subjective judgment or timing disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The primary resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, resolving once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback deadline for media consensus; market resolves based on who is inaugurated if sources have not called the race.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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