Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$54.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules are straightforward and clearly structured. The market resolves once three specified media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the same candidate as the winner. In case a unanimous consensus is not reached between all three designated outlets before January 20, 2029, the market features a definitive fallback that resolves strictly based on who is inaugurated as president on that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether LeBron James will win the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if LeBron James wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election date: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration date: — Resolution falls back to the inaugurated person if news sources have not reached a consensus by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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