Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$27.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the outcome criteria and decision mechanics. Resolution requires three specific major news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—to all call the presidential race for the same candidate. If all three outlets do not reach a consensus call prior to the inauguration date of January 20, 2029, the market explicitly falls back to whoever is officially inaugurated. The criteria leave minimal room for decider discretion or timing uncertainty.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. The primary resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution date if all three news sources have not called the race for the same candidate.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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