Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$35.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, requiring three named media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—to all call the race for the same candidate. If a consensus call is not reached before January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is inaugurated. There are no discretionary judgment calls or unexpected exceptions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Greg Abbott will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. Resolution depends on a consensus across three specific media outlets, with a fallback to the inauguration outcome if no consensus is reached.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Greg Abbott wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if someone other than Greg Abbott wins the election. The outcome is determined when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the presidential race for the same candidate. If all three outlets do not call the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline if the designated media sources have not reached consensus.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.