Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$44.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the market resolves, relying on three specific media networks—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three must project the same winner for the market to resolve early. In the event of a dispute or delayed projection across these outlets, the rules provide an unambiguous fallback to whoever is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. The terms leave minimal room for interpretation or unexpected resolution behavior.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tim Walz will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tim Walz wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC decide the outcome once all three call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution occurs based on who is inaugurated if all three sources have not called the race.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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