Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
2.05¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.05%
$12.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear, objective resolution criteria with minimal ambiguity. Resolution requires consensus across three explicitly named media organizations (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC). If all three outlets do not call the race for the same candidate prior to January 20, 2029, the market relies on a definitive fallback of whoever is formally inaugurated. There is no decider discretion or hidden exception that would catch market participants off guard.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if someone else wins. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three outlets have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated on January 20, 2029.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place.
- Inauguration day: — Fallback date to determine resolution if the three designated sources have not called the race.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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