Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$14.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and rely on three specific major media networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—reaching a consensus call on the race winner. If all three outlets do not agree before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market falls back definitively to whichever individual is officially inaugurated as president. The rules provide clear thresholds and a concrete fallback mechanism with minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump Jr. will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. Resolution depends on agreement across three designated media networks or the outcome of the presidential inauguration.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump Jr. wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the election. The designated deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution deadline if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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