Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
1.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.25%
$10.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria are clearly stated with unambiguous trigger conditions. Resolution relies on three specific, well-known news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) unanimously calling the race for the candidate, with an explicit fallback to whoever is inaugurated on January 20, 2029 if a unanimous call does not occur before then. The rules provide deterministic outcomes without leaving room for decider interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. Resolution requires consensus across three designated media outlets or relies on the inauguration outcome as a fallback.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution deadline if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.