Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$35.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify the outcome and the decision mechanism. Resolution requires agreement across three specified major news organizations—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If a consensus among all three outlets does not materialize before the inauguration date, the market explicitly falls back to whoever is officially inaugurated on January 20, 2029. This leaves minimal room for ambiguity, timing discrepancies, or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tulsi Gabbard will win the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tulsi Gabbard wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline if all three media sources have not called the race for the same candidate.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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