Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
4.35¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.35%
$9.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective resolution mechanics. Resolution occurs as soon as three specified news organizations (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all project the same winner. If a unanimous consensus among those outlets does not occur before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market resolves definitively based on who is inaugurated. This explicit fallback prevents prolonged deadlocks and leaves minimal room for ambiguity or source discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kamala Harris will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. Resolution requires consensus across three designated media outlets or defers to the individual inaugurated.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Kamala Harris wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another individual wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date of the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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