Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$28.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the winner is determined, relying on a unanimous projection from three specifically named media organizations: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. There is minimal ambiguity in how the race call is verified. Additionally, the rules provide a clear, objective fallback deadline tied directly to the presidential inauguration on January 20, 2029, resolving the market based on who is inaugurated if the designated media outlets do not reach consensus beforehand.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Glenn Youngkin will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Glenn Youngkin wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another individual wins the election. Resolution is determined by consensus among the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution date if all three consensus sources have not called the race for the same candidate.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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