Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
1.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.85%
$19.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the outcome mechanism and sources. Resolution triggers as soon as three specified major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all call the presidential race for the same candidate. In the event of a dispute or delayed calls where all three do not agree, the rules provide an unambiguous fallback resolving based on whoever is officially inaugurated on January 20, 2029. The terms are straightforward and leave minimal room for interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andy Beshear will win the 2028 US presidential election. Resolution relies on consensus among major media outlets or, as a fallback, the person inaugurated.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Andy Beshear wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC determine the winner once all three outlets project the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date for the 2028 US presidential election.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback: official inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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