Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
7.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.95%
$13M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has straightforward resolution terms tied to the outcome of the 2028 presidential race. Resolution relies on three named, prominent news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires unanimous agreement across all three before triggering. If a unanimous projection does not occur prior to the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market includes an explicit, objective fallback to whoever is officially inaugurated. The criteria leave minimal room for ambiguity or administrative discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. Resolution requires consensus across three designated media networks, with a fallback to the individual who is inaugurated if consensus is not reached.
How it resolves
The market will resolve to Yes if Marco Rubio wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market will resolve to No if another individual wins the election. Resolution is decided by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, resolving once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date of the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Inauguration Day: — Cutoff date after which resolution defaults to who is inaugurated if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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