Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows a straightforward, high-visibility event: the official selection and acceptance of the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, which leaves minor discretion in identifying the exact certifying statements, but major party presidential nominations are unambiguous and heavily documented. The rule explicitly clarifies that winning and accepting the nomination resolves the market, and subsequent replacements prior to election day will not overturn the result.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alex Padilla will win and accept the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president, with the resolution standing even if the nominee is subsequently replaced before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alex Padilla wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not change the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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