Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
14.85¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.85%
$28M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies that resolution requires Gavin Newsom to officially win and accept the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. The rules include a clear clause specifying that any later replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively change the result. Rather than citing a single specific document or web address, the market relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, but the formal nomination at a major party convention is an unambiguous public proceeding with minimal room for dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Notably, any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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