Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
1.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.95%
$18.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes an affirmative outcome: winning and accepting the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The rules specifically note that any post-nomination replacement ahead of the general election will not alter the outcome, preventing ambiguity seen in past election cycles. While the resolution source references a consensus of official party sources rather than a specific URL or single certifying body, formal party nominations at national conventions are definitive public milestones with negligible ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Wes Moore wins and accepts the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in the 2028 election cycle.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Wes Moore wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No otherwise. A subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not alter the market resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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