Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
5.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.65%
$10.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Josh Shapiro officially wins and accepts the Democratic Party presidential nomination for the 2028 election. The resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than naming a single designated document or official website, which introduces slight discretion, but presidential nominations are unambiguous, highly visible milestones. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee after they have won and accepted the nomination will not alter the market outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for President of the United States. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee before election day does not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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