Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
14.85¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.85%
$15.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the Democratic Party nomination for president in 2028, determined by official Democratic Party sources. The rules explicitly specify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee after formal acceptance will not alter the resolution, ensuring the focus remains squarely on the outcome of the party's formal nominating process.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. It specifies that any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources determines the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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