Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
4.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.95%
$12.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether the candidate wins and accepts the party's official presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, which introduces minor discretion in compilation but refers to authoritative party proceedings rather than open-ended media reporting. A specific clarification explicitly addresses what happens if a nominee is replaced prior to the general election, ensuring that subsequent changes do not retroactively alter the resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. A notable rule specifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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