Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$2.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market clearly specifies that resolution requires Josh Stein to win and officially accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, relying on official Democratic Party sources to confirm the outcome. It also includes an explicit clause addressing potential post-nomination replacements, clarifying that any subsequent change of nominee before election day will not alter an outcome once the nomination is secured. Because the party roll call and acceptance at the convention are formal, well-documented proceedings, the criteria leave very little room for dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Stein will win and accept the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Notably, any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Stein wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter this resolution. The market resolves to No if Josh Stein does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources determines the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.