Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$703K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes an affirmative outcome: winning and accepting the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The market explicitly clarifies that any post-nomination replacement prior to the general election will not alter the result. The designated resolution mechanism relies on official party sources rather than a specific URL or singular document, but major political party nominations are highly formalized events with clear official records.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Adam Schiff wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Adam Schiff wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not change the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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