Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$3.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on whether the candidate wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specified database or document, but the outcome of a major party presidential nomination is an institutional event with clear documentation. The rules also explicitly note that if the nominee is replaced after securing the nomination, the outcome remains unchanged, which reduces ambiguity around late-stage candidate changes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Abigail Spanberger wins and accepts the Democratic Party's presidential nomination for the 2028 U.S. election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Abigail Spanberger wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not alter the market's resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources will serve as the deciding source.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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