Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
2.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.65%
$11M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the question, requiring the specified candidate to formally win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources documenting the outcome of the party's nominating process. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to the general election will not alter the resolution once the initial nomination is secured.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether James Talarico wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. Notably, if the nominee is replaced prior to election day, that subsequent change does not affect the market outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if James Talarico wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not alter the market's resolution. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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