Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$17.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market outlines a clear criterion requiring the named candidate to win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution basis refers broadly to a consensus of official party sources rather than designating a single specific DNC document or link, but official party presidential nominations are definitive, public events. An explicit clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not retroactively alter the resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Chris Murphy wins and accepts the Democratic Party's 2028 nomination for U.S. president. A notable condition is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chris Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No otherwise. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.