Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$42.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the question, requiring the candidate to both win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not overturn an initial resolution. While resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single named party document or official website link, formal party nominations are major public events with definitive official records, leaving minimal room for conflicting interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Beto O’Rourke wins and accepts the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Beto O’Rourke wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter this outcome. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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