Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$48.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution requires the named individual to win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on official Democratic Party documentation, which formally certifies convention results and leaves minimal room for subjective interpretation. Furthermore, the rules explicitly address potential post-convention changes by stating that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andrew Yang will win and accept the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Andrew Yang wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution outcome once determined. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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