Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
1¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1%
$12.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market cleanly defines the winning condition as winning and accepting the nomination at the convention. The designated resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single specific URL or document, which grants minor discretion to the market decider, but the outcome of a major party presidential nomination is an unmistakable public event. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee ahead of the general election does not undo a resolution to Yes once the nomination is formally won and accepted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins and accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for U.S. president in the 2028 election cycle.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not alter this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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