Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$44.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome criteria are straightforward, requiring the named individual to win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specified document or live roll call record, but party nominations are formal public proceedings with definitive outcomes. The clause clarifying that any subsequent nominee replacement prior to election day does not alter the result ensures standard convention decisions stand.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hunter Biden wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hunter Biden wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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