Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$44.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution requires the named individual to win and accept the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nomination. Outcome determination relies on official party sources, which provide authoritative records of the convention and nomination roll call. The rules also explicitly note that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the result once the nomination has been secured. There are no notable interpretive ambiguities or unconventional edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether LeBron James will win and accept the Democratic Party's nomination for U.S. president for the 2028 election. Notably, any replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if LeBron James wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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