Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$42.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Phil Murphy wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single pre-designated document or roll call record. The rules explicitly note that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market resolution once the nomination is accepted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Phil Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A notable aspect is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Phil Murphy wins and accepts the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Any later replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not affect this resolution. The market resolves to No if Phil Murphy does not win and accept the 2028 nomination. The resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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