Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
1.6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.6%
$52.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The criteria for resolution are clear and align directly with the question: the named individual must win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single designated document or official website, though the outcome of a major party convention or nomination vote is definitive and public. The rules explicitly note that if the nominee is replaced after securing and accepting the nomination, it will not reverse an affirmative resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bernie Sanders wins and accepts the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Resolution remains unchanged even if the nominee is later replaced before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bernie Sanders wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day does not change the resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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