Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$38.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves straightforwardly based on whether the named individual officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources, which introduces minor discretion in interpreting party announcements, but official party proceedings provide clear public outcomes. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution, ensuring the market tracks the original nomination outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Liz Cheney will win and accept the Democratic Party's presidential nomination for the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Liz Cheney wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not change the market's resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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