Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$34.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that the named individual must both win and accept the official 2028 Democratic presidential nomination for the market to resolve positively. Outcome determination relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single pre-specified URL or document, though major party convention nominations are highly visible and definitive events. An explicit clause ensures that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not reverse the initial nomination outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Barack Obama wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Barack Obama wins and accepts the 2028 presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not change the resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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