Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$27.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Jared Polis wins and accepts the Democratic nomination for president in 2028. The condition is straightforward, and the rules clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the outcome. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official party communications rather than pointing to a single specific website or document, but official party confirmation of a presidential nominee is typically unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jared Polis wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not change the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jared Polis wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not affect or reverse this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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