Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$25.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market features straightforward criteria requiring the candidate to officially win and accept the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single specified link or official record, but major presidential nominations are formalized events with clear official confirmation. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement after the initial nomination does not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Fetterman wins and accepts the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if John Fetterman wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
a consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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