Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$39M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly align with the core question, resolving to Yes if the candidate wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single named registry or document, introducing minor discretion in how official consensus is established, though major party nominations are highly public, standardized proceedings. A clarifying clause ensures that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not reverse a Yes resolution, minimizing edge-case confusion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani will win and accept the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not affect the outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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