Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
1.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.55%
$14.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines what is required for a positive resolution: the named candidate must both win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than naming a single primary document, but the outcome of a major party convention is well-documented and publicly definitive. The rules also clarify that any later replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the outcome once the nomination has been won and accepted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rahm Emanuel will win and accept the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rahm Emanuel wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. A later replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market's resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources determines the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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