Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
2.45¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.45%
$17.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on whether the candidate wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party communications rather than a single specified document or URL, but major political party nominations are high-profile, formal proceedings with clear outcomes. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not invalidate an initial resolution if the candidate already won and accepted the nomination.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mark Kelly will win and accept the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mark Kelly wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter this resolution. The market resolves to No if Mark Kelly does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources determines the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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