Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$26.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The criteria are straightforward: the market resolves based on whether Michelle Obama officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specified website or officer, but official nomination decisions at national party conventions are unambiguous public events. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the initial resolution outcome, preventing potential post-convention confusion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michelle Obama will win and accept the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michelle Obama wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not alter this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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