Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$43.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves straightforwardly based on whether Tim Walz officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus among official Democratic Party communications rather than specifying a single URL or document, though official party nomination votes are public and definitive. The rules also explicitly clarify that if the nominee is replaced later before the general election, the resolution based on who won and accepted the nomination remains unchanged.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tim Walz will win and accept the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tim Walz wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution. The market resolves to No if Tim Walz does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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