Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
2.05¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.05%
$34.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the market question: the candidate must both win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The rules explicitly clarify that if the nominee is replaced prior to election day, the original resolution stands, preventing post-convention confusion. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specifically designated official or roll call record, though the formal selection of a major-party presidential nominee is an overt public outcome leaving very little room for dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Raphael Warnock will win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. If the nominee is later replaced before election day, the resolution is not altered.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Raphael Warnock wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day does not change the resolution of the market. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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