Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
3.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.25%
$13.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and align directly with the question asked. The market settles positively once the candidate wins and formally accepts the official Democratic nomination for president. An explicit clause notes that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to general election day will not alter or undo the resolution, removing potential confusion if post-convention nominee changes occur. Official party announcements and convention outcomes will serve as the deciding record, leaving very little room for dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andy Beshear wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Andy Beshear wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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