Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current price
6.95¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.95%
$14.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning condition as Kamala Harris winning and accepting the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources to verify the nomination, which is a formal, highly publicized political event. The rules also explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee after the nomination is secured will not overturn a positive resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kamala Harris wins and accepts the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. It specifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kamala Harris wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No otherwise. A subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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