Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?
Current price
22.5¢
+3.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 22.5%
$194K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes taking office: the person must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as part of an official government formation, explicitly excluding unconfirmed interim or caretaker appointments. Initial determination relies on broad reporting consensus with official Serbian government records serving as the tiebreaker if ambiguity arises. The market has a long-stop expiration date in June 2028, resolving to Other or No if no qualifying government is formed by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ilija Srdanović will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028. Resolution excludes any interim or caretaker prime minister who is not elected by the National Assembly.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ilija Srdanović is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, requiring election by the National Assembly and being formally sworn in to form a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister not elected by the National Assembly does not count. The market resolves to No if a different qualifying individual officially assumes the office first. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely based on official information from the Serbian government if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for a qualifying Prime Minister to take office.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Serbian government deciding in cases of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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