Will Đuro Macut be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$23.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions required for resolution: the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028. Interim or caretaker prime ministers who lack assembly election are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting with an explicit fallback to official Serbian government information in case of ambiguity. There are no unusual edge cases or surprising clauses that would lead to unexpected resolution outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Đuro Macut will be the next officially sworn-in Prime Minister of Serbia following election by the National Assembly. Interim or caretaker prime ministers not elected by parliament are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Đuro Macut is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, requiring election by the National Assembly and formal swearing-in to form a new government. The market resolves to No if another eligible individual assumes the office first. Interim or caretaker prime ministers not elected by the National Assembly do not count. The market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Serbian government information used if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Latest time for a new Prime Minister to take office before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Serbian government in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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