Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Current price
68.1¢
+1.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 68.1%
$923.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify what constitutes taking office: the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as part of an official government formation. Interim or caretaker appointments that bypass a parliamentary vote are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a defined fallback to official Serbian government announcements if any ambiguity arises. The end date of June 30, 2028 gives a clear cutoff, resolving to Other if no qualified prime minister takes office before the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Aleksandar Vučić will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028. Resolution requires being elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in, explicitly excluding unelected interim or caretaker leaders.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Aleksandar Vučić officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, having been elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under these same criteria first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers not elected by the National Assembly do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Serbian government information in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Serbian government used if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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