Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Current price
0.7¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.7%
$40.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market outlines clear criteria for what counts as assuming office: the candidate must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in to form a new government. Caretaker or interim officials who do not go through this parliamentary election process are explicitly excluded from qualifying. If no one takes office through this process by June 30, 2028, the market resolves to 'Other'. While resolution initially references a consensus of credible reporting, official Serbian government records serve as the definitive fallback.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ana Brnabić will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia. To count, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as part of a newly formed government, excluding interim or caretaker appointees.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ana Brnabić officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, after being elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in. It resolves to No if another individual officially assumes the office through this process first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers not elected by the National Assembly do not count. The market resolves to Other if no such Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Serbian government information if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- End date: — Market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by this time
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Serbian government resolving any ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.