Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Current price
2.8¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.8%
$34.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify what actions are necessary for resolution: the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as Prime Minister, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker leaders who lack Assembly election. The market operates with a long deadline of June 30, 2028, resolving to 'Other' if no qualifying prime minister takes office. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up by official government information if reporting is ambiguous, leaving minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ivica Dačić will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia. To qualify, an individual must be elected by the National Assembly and officially sworn in, which excludes unelected interim or caretaker appointments.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ivica Dačić officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, requiring election by the National Assembly and being formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under those same conditions first. Unelected interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Serbian government information used if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time by which a qualifying Prime Minister must officially take office before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Serbian government in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.